Jan 30, 2010

Oxymoron of the day: pitching surplus

The other day, Jan Leno asked Massachusetts' next senator, Scott Brown, who should be the odd man out. He said "probably" Tim Wakefield or Daisuke Matsuzaka.

It was a politician's waffle, but also underscores the fact that the Red Sox have six legitimate starters for the five-man rotation. Earlier in the week, Wakefield, the eldest of the group, said he shouldn't be dismissed:

I did make the All-Star team last year. It seems every year, and I don't know why, my name gets brought up like this when I don't feel I need to prove myself every day. I don't know where the rumors are coming from, but I try not to pay attention. I know my role and I know what my approach is going to be when I get to spring training: be a starter and help us win the World Series.
[...]
Hopefully they respect me enough to give me the ball when we get to spring training as a member of this rotation. I think I've earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there.

I'll endorse him over Dice-K, but I'm certain that if the Red Sox choose another option, Wake will accept his assignment and "help us win the World Series." He might speak his mind, but he won't hold a no-questions press conference in the stands and then refuse to speak about anything but the game for the rest of the season.

I think Wakefield is just speaking his piece, but Christine disagrees and thinks we could see a repeat of the Jamie Moyer situation, especially because Wakefield is already throwing out the word "respect." We'll see what happens.

Unless we never need a sixth starter, as Theo Epstein pointed out:

I've been around teams that had deep starting pitching on paper and by the time you get to the season, you can't find a starting pitcher to take the ball. I don't see that as a problem. I see that as a potential asset. It's not worth wasting time thinking about it or talking about it unless or until you get to a point during the regular season when you have more than five guys who are healthy and can do a good job starting. We're not at that point right now.

He doesn't have to look far for an example. Last year, everyone was raving about the Red Sox rotation that was more than six deep: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Brad Penny and Dice-K, plus John Smoltz was preparing to join the team midseason.

Those seven made 145 starts. Wakefield was a first-time All-Star but then missed the second half with injury. Buchholz established himself in the second half but first had to reprove himself in the minors. Dice-K missed most of the season because he was poorly conditioned, injured and valued the World Baseball Classic more than his paying gig. Smoltz and Penny were awful and released.

The other 17 starts went to youngsters: Justin Masterson (six), Junichi Tazawa (four) and Michael Bowden (one). A not-so-young Paul Bryd had the other six starts last year, proving the cliche that there is no such thing as too much starting pitching.

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