With the Cy Young awards going to the league's best pitchers, Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum, instead of ones with gaudier win-loss records, statheads are cautiously celebrating that it appears sports writers are finally starting to look beyond conventional wisdom and gut feelings to use all the information available to make informed judgments.
As Fangraphs blogger
Dave Cameron notes, it's too soon to say that these votes represent the end of the old school, but they do show signs of an evolution:
Today, the BBWAA took a pretty big step back towards credibility. It obviously isn't a wholesale change, and there are always going to be people resistant to any sort of change, but the shift is taking place. And it's a welcome occurrence.
And I do have a SoxandPhils point to these votes - besides a gratuitous mention that I correctly
predicted Lincecum's win. This morning, Scott Lauber, using Greinke's awareness of modern statistics as a hook, noted that Cole Hamels
wasn't as bad as he was perceived:
Hamels posted a 4.32 ERA in 32 regular-season starts, but according to The Hardball Times, his (Fielding Independent Pitching) was only 3.71, nearly identical to his 3.70 FIP in 2008. Obviously, Hamels was far better in 2008, posting a 3.09 ERA in 33 starts, allowing fewer hits (193 in 2008, 206 in 2009) and logging more innings (227.1 in 2008, 193.2 in 2009). But maybe, as Manuel and Dubee often have said, Hamels' stuff was nearly as good as it was in 2008. There were other factors that caused his demise.
Remembering all the grief Hamels took in recent months, you'd think this observation would be earth-shattering, but it has been pointed out by sabermetricians since the summer. Here's what David Golebiewski posted on
Fangraphs back in July:
The 25 year-old changeup artist might have troubling surface numbers, but he’s arguably pitching better than he did during that magical 2008 season.
When I mentioned this to Christine this morning, she questioned why I kept saying he had a poor season. I admit, I fall into the trap of not looking at, or even understanding, the more sophisticated statistics.
I don't understand statistics, but I have a healthy respect for those who do. I appreciate what they're saying and understand that things that I think are true may not be so. Hopefully, sports writers, who should view considering new metrics as part of their job, are starting to have a similar attitude.
Red Sox: Despite the blaring headlines, I don't think it means anything that Jason Bay
rejected the initial Red Sox offer, reportedly $60 million over four years, and will be able to take offers from other teams in a few hours. Bay's agent and GM Theo Epstein remain civil:
"Nothing will happen by day's end, but we'll keep talking," Bay's agent Joe Urbon said.
"It's not a surprise that a player that's gone this far wants to see what's out there," Red Sox GM Theo Epstein said by phone in Bay's regard, though Epstein declined comment on the team's talks with Bay.
David Ortiz, meanwhile, wants Bay back along with
another player with power. Perhaps because he hasn't hit more than 30 homers in a season since 2007?
"I said that like a year ago and everybody was looking at me like I was a (expletive) clown. You know? I said we needed another 30-home run hitter. Everybody was talking trash. There you go. Now what?" he said.
He spoke today to promote his charity golf outing that will feature several Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield and Terry Francona.
And Phils: Pedro Martinez, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.
